💥BTC Hits $100K Milestone While Trump's Tariffs Shake Global Supply Chains | ReFi-Playbook

Welcome to the ReFi Playbook — by RegenX 🌿🔆

Hi, I’m Ishan — founder of RegenX and curator of the ReFi Playbook. Whether you’re new here or have been following since our first issue, thanks for tuning in.

The ReFi Playbook is your insider look at the fast-growing world of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) for climate-positive projects. Each week, I share a curated mix of market moves, project deals, and tools driving the intersection of sustainable finance, Web3, and regenerative finance (ReFi).

Our goal is simple: help you navigate this evolving space with clarity, purpose, and impact.

If this isn’t for you, feel free to unsubscribe anytime — but if you’re curious about where tokenization and climate investing meet, you’ll want to stick around.

My Thoughts:

Bitcoin pushes past the all-important $100k mark, triggering bullish buy indicators once again. Analysts are now forecasting price rises above $110k by the end of May. Recent buying has largely been driven by huge inflows of institutional capital from Bitcoin ETFs that have seen inflows of over $4.5 billion since early April.

Watching 60 Minutes last night, I was shocked by just how far-reaching the consequences of Donald Trump’s trade war have become. Trump’s all our blanket tariffs are now hitting Aussie businesses hard, like Bond-Eye swimwear, which faces tariffs of up to 145% just to sell into the US. The popular swimwear brand sources and manufactures its clothing wear in China which is then exported around the world. Swimwear priced at US$140, will now be bumped up to over US$200 when adding in Trump's 145% tariff, making it unaffordable.

The report revealed that this isn’t just about economics, it’s reshaping global alliances and throwing long-standing trade relationships into chaos. With China retaliating and tensions escalating, Australia finds itself caught in the crossfire, trying to balance vital trade with China and strategic ties with the US. The message was clear: The cost of this trade war is having far reaching global impacts. Trusted global alliances, built over decades have been shattered. As reported by 60 minutes, this isn’t just a short-term market shake-up, it sends a lasting message. Once these relationships are damaged, they can’t be quickly patched up or repaired with a simple fix; the fallout could take years to unwind.

One thing to keep an eye on is the Port of Los Angeles. Cargo that is usually loaded onto container ships while the normally bustling berths, sits empty. Volume have tumbled by as much as 35% as ships from China cancel their trips to the Port of Los Angeles. The tariffs on China, Mexico and the rest of the world are expected to drastically slow the flow of goods into the U.S. The immediate impact is that the fall in volume will mean layoffs for port workers, and truckers. The longer-term impact are rising prices for consumers.

One bright spot over the weekend was news of a “deal” struck with the UK. While its actual substance is debatable, it still marks a symbolic win for Trump, and that alone will lift market sentiment. Ironically, the deal doesn’t appear materially better than having no deal at all… but in today's stupid climate, perception often “trumps” reality.

Much like a meme coin.

Here’s what we’ve got for you today:

• Market Rundown

• Global Headlines

• Chart of the Day

• Education: Article of the Day

• Events & Pitches

Market Rundown

Global Headlines

• US stock markets closed lower last week with the main US benchmarks closing slightly lower last Friday on the back of concerns about falling port volumes and falling expectations for a rate cut.

• Despite Friday’s close, Bloomberg Futures are pointing at a +450 point rally on the open after reports of "substantial progress" in US-China trade talks while upcoming CPI data and Fed commentary remain in focus.

• U.S.-China Trade Talks - Progress Made: Both nations reported "substantial progress" in Geneva discussions. Following two days of U.S.-China trade talks in Geneva, Trump announced a "total reset" in relations, highlighting "great progress" in resolving trade tensions.

• Tariff Reductions: No immediate tariff reductions announced; details expected soon.

• Market Reaction: Positive sentiment led to a 1.16% rise in S&P 500 futures.

• India-Pakistan Ceasefire: Agreement reached, easing regional tensions.

• Russia-Ukraine Talks: Leaders to meet in Turkey for direct peace discussions.

• Consumer Price Index (CPI):

  • Release Date: Tuesday, May 13, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET

  • March Data:

    • Headline Inflation: -0.1% month-over-month; 2.4% year-over-year

    • Core Inflation: +0.1% month-over-month; 2.8% year-over-year

  • April Expectations:

    • Headline Inflation: +0.3% month-over-month; 2.4% year-over-year

    • Core Inflation: +0.2% month-over-month; 2.8% year-over-year

Federal Reserve Outlook:

• Interest Rates: Currently at 4.25%–4.50%; no change in the latest meeting.

• Future Expectations: Markets anticipate a 70% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in July, with a total of 69 basis points in cuts by year-end.

Chart of the Day

Bitcoin / USD chart - Technical upside break out
Below is a chart of Bitcoin as at May 11, 2025 trading around $103,965 pushing past the all-important $100k threshold. Having broken past its resistance level, it’s showing resilience, rebounding nearly 40% from its April low and up 10% year-to-date. Technical indicators suggest ongoing strength, with key support levels at $100,000 and $92,000, while resistance levels are noted at $105,000 and $109,588. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 70, indicating overbought conditions, which may lead to short-term consolidation or a minor pullback. Bitcoin is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing the bullish outlook. The recent surge is attributed to positive developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations and increased institutional interest, including a record 19-day inflow streak for BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF. But analysts advise caution due to potential profit-taking and the overbought RSI levels. Bitcoin's technical outlook remains bullish, with the potential to test and possibly surpass its all-time high if current momentum continues.

What’s happening in the world of RWA?

• Token2049 - At the TOKEN2049 conference in Dubai, OKX's Head of Middle East and North Africa said focus on real-world asset (RWA) tokenization should be on delivering real value rather than excitement or hype. This perspective aligns perfectly with RegenX which creates real value through the tokenization of clean energy infrastructure projects.

• World’s largest $3B RWA tokenization deal - $3 billion of MAG’s luxury real estate will be tokenized on MultiBank’s platform, powered by Mavryk blockchain.

• BlackRock filed to create a digital ledger technology shares class for its $150 billion Treasury Trust fund. It will maintain a mirror record of share ownership for investors and the DLT shares will track BlackRock’s BLF Treasury Trust Fund (TTTXX).

• Pencil Finance is using a RWA protocol to convert student loans into RWA tokens. It could be life changing for students giving them direct access to capital without going knee deep into debt.

• Goldman Sachs is looking to tokenize Treasuries and Money Market funds into tokens allowing 24/7 trading, according to reports coming out of TOKEN2049 in Dubai.

• The Maldives Government is in agreement with MBS Global Investments, a Dubai based family office, to build a $9 billion crypto hub to attract foreign investment. Maldives’ regulatory approach encourages tech disruption without fear of regulatory reprisal.

Sparks of Curiosity

"We're not here to disrupt for the sake of disruption. We're here to build trust, unlock transparency, and enable liquidity where it never existed — using blockchain as a tool, not a buzzword."

— Ishan Dan, Founder & CEO of ReGenX, on Sparks of Curiosity

In this episode, Ishan breaks down how blockchain can drive real-world impact in climate investing — beyond the hype, beyond the jargon. If you're curious about Web3, sustainable finance, or what the future of green infrastructure investing looks like, this one's for you.

🎧 Listen now: https://lnkd.in/gavX_hVj

RegenX pitched at Decarb Pitch Fest

What a night! 🥳😎 🎤 

Team RegenX had the privilege of pitching at the Decarb Pitch Fest hosted by EnergyLab an inspiring event bringing together bold startups working to accelerate the clean energy transition. EnergyLab is Australia’s largest climate tech startup accelerator. The Decarb Pitch Fest showcased the startups from Cohort 2 of EnergyLab's Investment Ready Program for Queensland climate tech founders. It brought together investors, startups, and the wider Queensland climate tech ecosystem. 

A huge thank you to Audun Fiskerud, Megan Fisher & the EnergyLab team for putting together a brilliant event. Well done to all the other presenters — the energy in the room was powerful and the ideas even more so. Excited for what’s ahead.

Let’s decarbonise — together.

Startups that pitched:

• Bitpool (Ben Carter & David Blanch) is a Building Intelligence Platform optimising clients’ performance, cutting their costs, and reducing their carbon footprint.

• Gate 46 (Joshua Savage & Damien Stone) provides waste-to-energy technologies and sustainable agricultural practices for dairy farms.

• Genevo Marine (Damon Rahmate & Andrew Davey) is on the path to become Australia’s first fully electric production speed-boat and drive train.

• InfigoLabs (Prashant Parulekar) uses zero-emission high temperature flame of steam to create value in high-yield, coke-free ethylene production and to complete PFAS (forever chemicals) destruction.

• Methane Intel (Geoff Osborn) provides integrated satellite and sensor-based site methane reporting for coal, gas, landfill, and feedlot industries.

• Ocean Orchards (Adrian Spierings & Anna Hendra) turns pond slime into a high value cosmetic extract, a tasteless plant-based protein powder, and carbon negative concrete. All at the same time.

• RegenX (Ishan Dan) is a tokenised investment platform helping impact investors access verified green projects with transparency and trust.

• Sequestra (Warwick Anderson & Sheree Anderson) creates carbon credits through self-sustaining ecosystems that regenerate land, improves soil health, and drive economic value.

• Squirrel Energy (Joris Eerkens) is a vertically integrated developer, builder, and operator of sub-5 MW Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) with a focus on AI-driven energy trading.

• Swapping Chain (Nic Robertson) is an algorithm-driven swapping platform unlocking the hidden value in dormant goods.

• Tera (Lachlan Jeremijenko & Rochelle Caron) provides a hardware solution that transforms CO2 emissions from existing industrial processes into useful carbon products.

Winner at WYNnovation Pitch Competition 2025!

🏆 Winners of WYNnovation Pitch Competition 2025!

First prize: AI Mily – Mily Lee

An AI-powered, real-time medical interpreter designed by clinicians to bridge language barriers in care. Piloting in aged care, with projected annual savings of $4–$9M for Wyndham.

Runner up: RegenX – Ishan Dan

A local-first investment platform giving Wyndham residents and businesses a stake in the clean energy shift. Its Smart Solar Park pilot supports council goals to reach carbon neutrality by 2040.

People's choice: Tala Thrive – Sonia Kaurah

An app delivering culturally competent mental health care through peer support, coaching, and self-guided wellbeing tools.

👏 Finalists:

• 🤖 Ag Robot – Jawwad Khan: Smart robotics built for farmers.

• 🚐 Bunji Ride – Senthill Sundaram: Inclusive, accessible transport for all abilities.

A Big thank you to Wyndham City Council and Dickie Currer for the opportunity to pitch at WYNnovation Pitch Competition 2025!

We’re proud to share that RegenX placed 2nd among a strong field of innovators. It was inspiring to see so many ideas driving positive change in the region. Looking forward to building a pilot project in Wyndham and to continuing our mission in bringing community-owned clean energy to Wyndham and beyond.

Let’s build a greener future, together.

Thanks for reading this week’s edition of the ReFi Playbook. I appreciate you being part of this growing community of builders, investors, and changemakers shaping the future of climate finance. If you found value here, feel free to forward it to a friend or colleague who might be curious about the world of tokenized RWAs and regenerative finance. And if you haven’t already, make sure to subscribe so you don’t miss the next drop. Until then, stay curious, stay regenerative. 🌱

Ishan
Founder, RegenX