🛢️💧Oil prices tipped to rise after Trump Bombs Iran | ReFi-Playbook Is Here

🔆Welcome to the ReFi Playbook — by RegenX 🌿

Global oil prices are tipped to rise after Trumps bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities have led to fears of a rapid escalation in conflict. According to some media sources, prices are forecasts to push well past US$100 a barrel with particular concern that Iran will block the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil shipments, disrupting markets and fuelling inflation. Roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil flows goes passes through.

At the time of writing, Iran’s parliament had already voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, with a final decision by Iran’s Supreme Council due anytime. Any further escalation will impact global shipping, investor sentiment, and RBA rate cutting decisions. In a scenario where the oil price rises past US$100-US$120 a barrel, it will directly raise the cost of fuel, transport, and energy which flows through to prices of goods and services across the economy. This means higher inflation. Higher inflation reduces the need for stimulus and reduces the need for the RBA to cut rates.

Following a potential closure, the bigger concern is a US re-retaliation. Either way, the decision to join the Israeli war on Iran will send uncertainty and volatility into markets with Australian shares expected to dip slightly. Investors will be closely watching Iran’s next move.

Market Rundown

Global Headlines

• US Stock Markets closed relatively flat last week.

• US Dow Jones Futures to open -147 at the time of writing.

• The Trump Administration bombs three of Iran’s nuclear sites on Sunday, raising fears of Iran leaving the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and closing off the Strait of Hormuz.

• UN Security Council meets as Russia, China push for a ceasefire.

• Investors brace for oil price rise. WTI Crude, $78.00, +4.16%.

• Tesla - Is set to launch its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas this Sunday.

• Last week Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed that the central bank is not in a rush to lower rates especially after Trump’s tariffs.

• Crypto markets hammered with Ethereum down 10% and Bitcoin down 4% to US$99,237.

Economic Data due for release this week

Australia - On Monday, Australia's Global Manufacturing PMI comes in at 51.0 in June which was above an expected 50.5. Services PMI rose to 51.3 also above an expected 50.1. Overall a good set of numbers that showed Australian business activity growth accelerated in June, further supported by a rise in manufacturing production.

US - Mon: Manufacturing and Services PMI. Wed: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Testimony, Consumer Confidence. Thurs: GDP Growth Rate QoQ (consensus -0.20%),.Initial Jobless Claims (consensus 247k). Fri: Core PCE Prince Index MoM. Sat: Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

Crypto markets hit, short term

The cryptocurrency market saw over $1 billion in liquidations and sharp declines in major coins after U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites heightened geopolitical tensions. Around 240,000 traders were liquidated within 24 hours as Bitcoin dropped below $100,000, Ethereum fell nearly 10%, and Solana lost over 8%, with fears of oil supply disruptions adding to the pressure. The selloff followed Trump's announcement of military action, marking a stark reversal from recent crypto gains under his pro-crypto administration. Despite the turmoil, venture funding in the sector remained steady, underscoring both the volatility and resilience of the crypto market amid global uncertainty.

At the time of writing, BTC has bounced back and pared earlier losses, trading at US$100,689. As certainty starts to come back into markets, cryptocurrencies will be the first to bounce back.

War stocks - Austal (ASB)

When geopolitical tensions rise and the US goes to war, defence facing companies often see sudden rise in investor interest and Austal Ltd is a standout example. On the US market, Lockheed Martin (LMT +0.42%) and Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC +0.62%).
Austal is Australia’s only major shipbuilder and the nation’s largest defence exporter. It is a clear beneficiary of the global ramp-up in military spending. Shares have more than doubled in 2025, hitting all-time highs on the back of a $14.2 billion order book, major U.S. Navy contracts, and increasing demand for naval capabilities worldwide. With operations across four countries and strategic backing from the Forrest family’s Tattarang, Austal is well-positioned to capitalise on the booming defence theme. As the company transitions from aluminium to steel shipbuilding and fends off takeover interest from South Korea’s Hanwha, it finds itself at the centre of both market momentum and national security debate, making it a war stock portfolio investor’s should have in their watchlist.

Gold tipped to rise

Gold prices tend to rise during periods of heightened volatility, as investors move to safety and out of equities. Over the weekend, geopolitical tensions escalated following U.S. airstrikes on Iran. While gold has only risen around 1% so far, ongoing uncertainty, particularly around potential Iranian retaliation via closure of the Strait of Hormuz and any further U.S. response could drive renewed market volatility and boost demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

What’s happening in the world of RWA?

• As reported by a CNBC article, the U.S. Senate has passed the GENIUS Act, marking the first major federal legislation for stablecoins and a milestone for the crypto industry. The bill creates a regulatory framework for dollar-pegged digital currencies, giving broad oversight to the Treasury and enabling participation from banks, fintechs, and retailers. While Democrats were unable to block presidential profit-making from such tokens, Trump reportedly earned $57 million in 2024, industry players like Amazon and Walmart are now eyeing stablecoin-based payment solutions, signalling potential disruption to traditional financial networks.

• According to CoinDesk, real-world assets (RWAs) are entering a new phase in crypto, with tokenized reinsurance emerging as a standout example. This is a $784bn reinsurance market opportunity to bring it on-chain, offering greater transparency, composability, and yield potential.

• According to crypto.news, Circle shares jumped 34% to nearly $200 after the Senate passed the GENIUS Act, boosting stablecoin regulation. Up 500% since its IPO, Circle is now seen as a leading player in the growing market for compliant, dollar-backed digital tokens.

🏦 Alternative Fund Tokenization

IFI Global’s recent webinar on alternative fund tokenization delivered deep insights into the evolving landscape of tokenized private market assets. Featuring industry leaders from Archax, Maple Finance, and STEM, the session explored rising adoption among private fund managers, with real estate and private credit emerging as early use cases. The event also marked the launch of IFI Global’s new Tokenization Tracker, a first-of-its-kind resource monitoring tokenized fund launches, investor flows, and industry growth. As discussed, tokenization is no longer just a concept—it’s a practical tool reshaping fund structures, distribution, and liquidity.

🏦 Tokenisation: A $135bn opportunity for asset managers

According to Calastone, tokenisation could deliver over $135 billion in cost savings for the asset management industry by streamlining operations, reducing back-office expenses, and accelerating fund launches. Their research with 26 managers found that full adoption could lower operating costs by 23%, while also boosting revenue through faster product rollouts and broader investor access. Though adoption remains early, momentum is building, with firms like BlackRock and Franklin Templeton already piloting tokenised funds. Calastone argues that a modular, use-case-led approach will drive the industry's shift toward a more efficient, digital future.

Where is the action tomorrow? Financing looks set to lead the industry agenda

According to the 2025 report DLT in the Real World by The ValueExchange, Accenture, and ISSA, the top priority for the industry over the next 12 months is pledging tokenized securities as collateral, followed closely by the launch and issuance of tokenized funds. This insight directly supports RegenX’s strategy of enabling fractionalised, tokenized investment into climate infrastructure. By focusing on tokenized clean energy assets and enabling them to be used as collateral, RegenX is aligned with broader industry trends seeking to unlock liquidity, streamline financing, and make real-world assets more accessible to institutional investors.

RegenX Pitched at RMIT’s Pitch Night

Wow — what a night! We had the honour of pitching RegenX at RMIT Activator’s [Re]Launch Pitch Night, held at the iconic State Library Victoria. It was an inspiring evening shared with an amazing cohort of founders tackling climate and systemic challenges with bold, impactful ideas. Huge thanks to my co-founder Laura Harris, our mentor Anthony Du Preez, and the incredible RMIT Activator team — Ky Snyder, Hanna Guy, Caitlin Phillips-Peddlesden, Nehal Jain, and Alicia Darvall — for guiding us through a transformative 12-week journey. We’re so grateful for the platform to share the RegenX story.

Thanks for reading this week’s edition of the ReFi Playbook. I appreciate you being part of this growing community of builders, investors, and changemakers shaping the future of climate finance. If you found value here, feel free to forward it to a friend or colleague who might be curious about the world of tokenized RWAs and regenerative finance. And if you haven’t already, make sure to subscribe so you don’t miss the next drop. Until then, stay curious, stay regenerative. 🌱

Ishan
Founder, RegenX