Welcome to the ReFi Playbook — by RegenX 🌿

The local market was caught off guard when the RBA held the cash rate at 3.85%, despite most economists tipping a cut. Governor Michele Bullock defended the move, saying market expectations stemmed from differing interpretations of recent inflation data. While headline CPI appeared soft at 2.1%, the RBA believes underlying inflation remains higher. Bullock stressed the importance of quarterly over monthly data, calling the latter too volatile. The RBA is now waiting for clearer signs that inflation is sustainably within the 2–3% target band before cutting rates. All eyes will be on the upcoming July 30 quarterly CPI release which will affect the August 12 RBA meeting.

In the US, President Donald Trump has announced a new round of tariffs, a 200% levy on pharmaceutical imports and a 50% tariff on copper, potentially affecting major exporters like Australia. While the copper tariff is not expected to significantly impact Australia, the pharmaceutical tariff could hit companies such as CSL particularly hard. According to ABC News, pharmaceuticals are among Australia’s top exports to the U.S., with over $2 billion in annual trade at risk. A final decision is expected once the U.S. Commerce Department completes its investigation later this month. That said, with “Taco Trump,” it remains uncertain whether these tariffs will stick, as many past proposals have not.

In Q2 2025, crypto markets saw strong institutional growth with Bitcoin hitting a record US$111K and regulators approving Ether ETF options. Key players like Coinbase, Ripple, and Robinhood expanded through major acquisitions. Tokenization of real-world assets has been the talk of the town, growing steading while stablecoins also gained traction. Regulatory shifts, including Trump’s repeal of the DeFi broker rule, boosted confidence. Looking ahead, Q3 is expected to bring more clarity, deeper TradFi–DeFi integration, and Bitcoin trading between US$75K–$120K. (Source: Investing News Network, July 7, 2025)

What's a little concerning is that tariffs are helping keep interest rates higher than they otherwise might be particularly in Australia. The RBA is closely monitoring how new tariffs on pharmaceuticals and copper could impact local businesses. At the same time, markets appear to be shrugging off this volatility, with the Dow Jones back at all-time highs.

There's growing concern that we may be entering overvalued territory, especially with CNN’s Fear & Greed Index now showing markets in “Extreme Greed” mode.

For 2025, the asset class performance table below by BlackRock shows a clear shift in market leadership, with European equities emerging as the top performer, returning 21.2%, while U.S. equities delivered a near flat return of just 0.1%. This stark contrast highlights a reversal from previous years, where U.S. markets often led global performance. The outperformance of Europe reflect improving economic sentiment, better valuations, and a clear sector rotation favouring stable European industries. Meanwhile, the weak performance from U.S. equities signals investor caution amid policy uncertainty, tariff impacts and stretched valuations following a strong multi-year rally. Interestingly private market infrastructure also performed strongly, coming in second with a 13.2% return, reinforcing its growing appeal as a resilient, income-generating asset class in an increasingly volatile market environment.

Nvidia Hits $4 Trillion Milestone, Cementing AI Dominance

Nvidia (NVDA) shares listed on the NASDAQ briefly reached a $4 trillion market capitalisation becoming the first company in history to achieve this milestone. The rise in share price reflects investor confidence in Nvidia’s leadership in the AI hardware space, as its chips remain central to powering large language models and AI infrastructure globally. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and U.S. export restrictions to China, Nvidia’s stock has bounced over 74% since April and is up 22% year-to-date. Now accounting for 7.3% of the S&P 500, Nvidia has overtaken both Microsoft and Apple in market cap and is worth more than the entire UK stock market. With continued AI momentum and earnings forecasted at $45 billion in Q2, Nvidia’s rise underscores how AI is reshaping global market dynamics and investor priorities.

Market Rundown

Global Headlines

• US Stock Markets closed relatively flat this week, as investors continue to await clarity. Trump says new tariff deadline will not be extended. It’s a wait and see approach.

• Trump’s new tariff’s on copper and pharmaceuticals as well as tariffs of 25% on all imports from South Korea and Japan, have started to affect market sentiment.

• Trump has also warned that 14 countries will face new tariffs from August 1 unless trade deals are reached. Despite claiming this date is final, recent precedent suggests further delays remain possible.

• U.S. crude oil prices rose 0.6% to $68.33 a barrel.

• Tesla shares fell as investor concerns surrounding Elon Musk’s new political party will damage the brand. Shares fell 6.8% earlier in the week.

• Crypto markets rebounding with Bitcoin +2.70% to US$111,198 and Ethereum flat at US$2,771.

Robinhood Moves into Tokenized Shares

The popular commission-free stock and crypto trasding app, Robinhood, announced it would offer European users tokenized shares of OpenAI and SpaceX. This is a huge step for tokenization and a sign of where finance is heading.

OpenAI is a private company and isn’t listed on any stock exchange, meaning regular investors usually can’t buy its shares. But Robinhood is making it possible to get exposure to OpenAI’s value by offering digital “tokens” linked to its shares through a special investment vehicle. These tokens work like a blockchain-based version of ownership, recorded securely and transparently on a public ledger. Tokenized shares can be traded more flexibly than traditional stock, potentially 24/7, and can even be used for things like staking or lending.

That opens up private markets, which were once reserved for the wealthy, to a much larger audience. While there’s some controversy, OpenAI, for example, says it doesn’t endorse the product, the move proves tokenization is going mainstream. It shows how blockchain can break down barriers and give everyday people a chance to participate in deals they’d normally never access.

Can tokenized stocks threaten traditional exchanges?
While tokenization has the potential to disrupt traditional markets, it’s still early days. Challenges like limited access, wide spreads, illiquidity, and unclear investor rights remain. Still, it signals a shift toward onchain equity trading and a future where the line between public and private markets begins to blur.

This is exactly what we’re doing here at RegenX: Using tokenization to open up investments in climate-positive infrastructure projects like solar and wind. Instead of being locked out, investors can buy smaller, tradable pieces of real-world projects with full transparency and impact tracking. Tokenization isn’t a future concept anymore, it’s happening right now, and it has the power to change how we invest for good.

The Tokenization Revolution Is Coming Sooner Than You Think!

Tokenization is rapidly going mainstream and is tipped to hit $30 trillion in asset value by 2030, according to STM.co’s recent tokenization research report. Predictions show explosive growth across both public and private markets. STM estimates in a bull case that figure could even hit $50 trillion by 2030. Notably, real estate, private markets, and public equities are among the largest segments expected to be tokenized, signalling a shift from niche blockchain use cases to real institutional adoption.

The report highlights that public markets are seeing growing tokenized adoption through platforms like Robinhood and Franklin Templeton, while private markets are gaining traction through infrastructure providers like Securitize INX. STM.co says tokenization is evolving from a niche innovation to a foundational component of modern capital markets infrastructure.

Source: Security Token Market, “STM.co Security Token Market Q1 2024 Report”, July 2024.

What’s happening in the world of RWA?

Dubai Approves First Tokenized Money Market Fund
The Dubai Financial Services Authority has approved the QCD Money Market Fund, making it the first tokenized fund officially set up in the DIFC. Backed by Qatar National Bank and DMZ Finance, this marks a major step for regulated digital finance in the region.

Janus Henderson’s $1B Tokenized Fund via Centrifuge
Janus Henderson, with over $330bn in AUM, just hit $1bn in a tokenized CLO strategy using Centrifuge tech. The fund, supported by Grove’s credit infra, won big in the Sky/Maker RWA Grand Prix. It’s another sign that vertically integrated ecosystems are the future of tokenization.

Dinari Beats Big Players to U.S. Tokenized Stock License
Tokenized stocks are back. Dinari just became the first to get a U.S. broker-dealer license to offer them beating out Robinhood and Coinbase. Until now, only non-U.S. users could access these assets on-chain. This opens the door for U.S. investors to bring stocks into DeFi.

SPiCE VC Shows Real Returns with Tokenized Venture Model
SPiCE VC, one of the earliest tokenized venture firms, just announced its third investor payout. So far, they’ve returned over 2.1x DPI, double what most top VC funds do by year seven. Their portfolio includes names like Securitize and Blockdaemon.

Canton Network Raises $135M from Wall Street Giants
Digital Asset’s Canton Network raised $135m from heavyweights like Goldman Sachs, Citi Ventures, BNP Paribas, and the DTCC. Built for privacy and institutions, they’re already working with Nasdaq and QCP, and aiming to bring hundreds of billions in RWAs on-chain.

Plume Network Launches with $150m in Tokenized Assets
Plume Network is now live with its Genesis mainnet and $150M in RWAs already on-chain. Backed by Haun Ventures and Apollo Global, it’s integrating real-world assets directly into top DeFi protocols, pushing forward the on-chain asset revolution.

Energy Asset Tokenization

I recently watched a YouTube video from Energy Tokens and wanted to share it because of the strong parallels with what we’re building at RegenX. The video highlights the many challenges of traditional energy asset ownership i.e. high barriers to entry, limited access, illiquidity, and exclusivity reserved for insiders and institutional investors. By tokenizing these assets on the blockchain, platforms like Energy Tokens are introducing transparency, fractional ownership, and liquidity to a market previously locked behind private deals and outdated systems. What’s particularly interesting is that Energy Tokens isn’t just targeting renewable energy they’re creating tokenized investment opportunities across oil, gas, wind, and solar. Investors can buy into SPVs representing interests in energy-producing assets, receive distributions (in fiat or crypto), and trade their positions on a regulated ATS (Alternative Trading System). This shift drastically reduces holding periods and opens up previously inaccessible markets to a wider group of investors.

At RegenX, we’re applying similar technology and investment structures but laser-focused on clean energy infrastructure in Australia, such as solar and EV battery projects. Our goal is to make clean energy investment accessible, transparent, and liquid from day one.

Full Transparency, No Greenwashing thanks

Think your green investments are safe? Maybe not. Active Super was fined $10m for claiming to exclude coal and gambling while still investing in them. At RegenX, we record every clean energy investment and carbon credit on blockchain — fully transparent, traceable, and greenwashing-proof.

EnergyLab Investment Ready Program kicking off

➡️If you're a Queensland-based climate tech founder considering your next capital raise, apply now to be part of Cohort 3 of the @EnergyLab Investment Ready Program kicking off in August 2025: https://lnkd.in/g9w7B2t4

The first two cohorts have been full of ambitious founders solving important problems. Both cohorts pictured below at our Decarb Pitch Fest events at The Precinct in Brisbane.

Thanks for reading this week’s edition of the ReFi Playbook. I appreciate you being part of this growing community of builders, investors, and changemakers shaping the future of climate finance. If you found value here, feel free to forward it to a friend or colleague who might be curious about the world of tokenized RWAs and regenerative finance. And if you haven’t already, make sure to subscribe so you don’t miss the next drop. Until then, stay curious, stay regenerative. 🌱

Ishan
Founder, RegenX